Thanksgiving dinner will cost 13.5% more this year, thanks to inflation, soaring food costs

The traditional Thanksgiving dinner will very likely be spreading some wallets thin this year as inflation continues to drive up grocery prices.

IRI, a Chicago-based marketing research company, created and recently released its Thanksgiving Tracker, a report examining Thanksgiving-related consumer trends on a weekly basis.

Its prediction: Items for the big feast will cost about 13.5% more this year than in 2021.

Joan Driggs, vice president of content and thought leadership at IRI, said inflation for items at the grocery store varies from product to product and can change weekly.

“I’ve seen the price increase across the products we’re showcasing this week more than it did a week ago,” she said.

Driggs said consumers last year were concerned about supply chain issues and whether there would be enough supply during Thanksgiving.

This year, it’s all about the economy. Shoppers and family chefs are fretting about inflation and being able to afford a Thanksgiving dinner.

Popular Thanksgiving ingredients have seen a double-digit percentage increase in price compared to last year, according to the data.

The tracker report from Nov. 1 found that butter and margarine are nearly 35% more expensive this year than last year, the biggest price increase so far among ingredients.

Other big increases are seen on such items as evaporated and condensed milk, which are nearly 30% more expensive, or cranberry sauce at nearly 24%.

But Driggs emphasized that these percentages could change on a weekly basis.

“It’s based on demand, based on retailers weighing how much they have in stock and how much they anticipate people wanting to come and buy,” Driggs said.

And when it comes to the centerpiece of most Thanksgiving feasts — the turkey — you could be paying more, but you shouldn’t worry about supply issues.

Bill Mattos, president of the California Poultry Federation, said while there are fewer turkeys this year due to an outbreak of a highly pathogenic avian influenza, or bird flu, there will still be enough to meet consumer demand. But shoppers can expect an uptick in turkey prices.

“Fresh (turkey) is going to cost a little more than frozen, and if it’s fresh, it’s going to come from California,” Mattos said.

“My recommendation to consumers is they need to reach out to their supermarkets this week and find out if they have turkeys.”

Mattos said much of the increase in turkey and egg prices comes from the bird flu, which wiped out about 50 million turkeys and egg layers in the U.S. and 300,000 turkeys in California alone.

“Supermarkets are getting what they’re getting, so that’s why I’m urging consumers to reach out to your market if you want a California turkey,” Mattos said.

“No matter what, there will still be enough turkeys to meet the demand, it just might depend on the kind you get.”

Driggs said shoppers have already started buying their Thanksgiving ingredients, shopping around at multiple stores to get the best deals for Thanksgiving and regular grocery purchases.

She said her best advice for shoppers is to spread out the cost of the meal over the weeks leading up to Thanksgiving and saving the fresh groceries, like produce, for the week of.

“Farm out some of the side dishes to friends or family who are showing up to the dinner so one person doesn’t have to take on the full meal,” she said.

“I hope it becomes a new hidden gem for Thanksgiving as people get exposed to new dishes and create new traditions.”

Sara Edwards is the small business and consumer reporter for The Press Democrat. You can reach her at 707-521-5487 or sara.edwards@pressdemocrat.com. Follow her on Twitter @sedwards380.